Breaking the Orange-Blocking the Red: Political stances after Bhumjaithai dissolved parliament. Analysts view the "Blue" party as gaining strength by capitalizing on nationalist sentiment, expecting it to sweep 130 constituency seats nationwide. Attention is on the major power's strategy to run separately and avoid splitting votes.
Following the parliamentary dissolution amid the Thai-Cambodian border crisis, many are closely watching the 2026 election, expected in early February 2026, to see if the former ruling coalition will remain tightly united.
Dr. Satithorn Thananitichot, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, told Thairath Online's special news team that Bhumjaithai's decision to dissolve parliament now likely reflects an assessment that this move offers an advantage. Nationalism is expected to generate popular support, while the People's Party faces significant challenges from this sentiment, often receiving negative responses when expressing opinions. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is limited in action, having previously governed and being ousted due to conflicts over Cambodia.
This situation gives Bhumjaithai the greatest advantage in the upcoming election. Even if it does not gain direct votes, those votes will not go to the Orange or Red camps but will circulate among parties ready to support Anutin's return as prime minister.
The government's operations after dissolution do not face a vacuum, despite some restrictions. Specifically, the Thai-Cambodian clashes will not affect caretaker government decisions but will impact long-term policies tied to the next administration that require annual budget approval.
"During the election period, managing the ongoing military clashes will not be an issue because the constitution allows the caretaker government to request troop transfers to assist in combat. Once approved by the Election Commission, it can proceed. The prime minister's powers after dissolution are not heavily restricted constitutionally but are limited to prevent using the position for election advantages."
Regarding the 2026 election, current assessments suggest Bhumjaithai will likely secure the most votes due to its strong presence in constituency seats. Its election strategy involves fielding incumbent candidates and newcomers with proven track records, which previously yielded results. Although Move Forward had strong momentum last election, these candidates succeeded then, and the current momentum is not as strong as before, so success remains possible.
The People's Party may come in second, but its party-list vote will depend on whether it can generate as much public support as before. Its constituency seats are expected to drop significantly. Observing Bhumjaithai's candidate placement reveals a cooperative strategy, avoiding past vote-splitting contests by dividing constituencies to prevent cutting each other's votes. This tactic will make it more difficult for the People's Party.
It is expected that Bhumjaithai could win 120-130 constituency seats in this election, with the rest coming from party-list votes, excluding those likely to join them. There is also a trend of Pheu Thai MPs being attracted to Bhumjaithai.