As the party-switching deadline nears, conservative politicians are converging into two main centers: Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham, both marking themselves as stronger than before. Observers note that Pheu Thai is unfazed by these pull factors and retains a solid hold on its territory.
The 2026 general election is approaching the registration day for party-list and constituency candidates scheduled for this weekend. This means politicians wanting to switch parties must complete the process before registration, creating a flurry of activity. Notably, there is an increase in party switching among candidates formerly aligned with conservative parties.
Assessing party switching among conservative candidates, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, analyzed the pre-election dynamics, observing a widespread phenomenon of 'MP flow.' Two main factors drive this: first, electoral rules that facilitate MPs' movement between parties; second, the relatively short election timeframe of about 40 days from now, prompting parties to swiftly adjust strategies to gain advantages.
With limited campaigning time and party support bases unlikely to change significantly, many parties opt for a 'shortcut' in political competition by recruiting or 'shopping' MPs to boost their election chances, often at the expense of party principles or internal unity.
Meanwhile, if the constitution remains unamended, previous patterns and problems are likely to recur, as seen in the 2019 and 2023 elections. Specifically, there will continue to be 'two-tier rules' in both the election process and government formation stages, which fail to truly reflect the people's will. Election results chosen by voters may not directly translate into government formation in the House of Representatives as the public expects.
The movement of MPs before this election resembles multiple streams converging, ranging from large to medium to small currents. The large stream refers to flows toward the Bhumjaithai Party, the medium stream toward the Kla Tham Party, while smaller streams may flow to Pheu Thai or newly established parties. Overall, the large and medium streams are significant factors influencing the election's direction, with their origins mainly from the Chartthaipattana Party’s areas, followed by Ruam Thai Sang Chart and Palang Pracharath parties. This reflects the realignment and coalition-building among politicians at this critical pre-election juncture.
Is the Conservative Party Collapsing?
This phenomenon indicates that the upcoming election process may not fully convey the true will of the people, as MPs’ decisions in parliament are not clearly aligned with popular vote trends and continue under the existing government formation rules.
Thailand has held two elections under the 2017 constitution, but the party with the highest popular vote failed to form the government both times. This situation underscores the very limited role of the popular will in the government formation process under current rules.
Regarding Pheu Thai, despite recent drama over MPs defecting from the party, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yutthaporn maintains that Pheu Thai still has the potential to win about 100 seats, as its voter base remains intact. Although the party lost two by-elections and won only one recently, its overall vote share did not decline significantly. The main challenge now is restructuring the party and finding new voter bases to strengthen it.
Currently, the party-switching situation seems to be calming down, as many parties have announced their party-list MPs and candidates. However, it remains to be seen whether MPs who switched parties earlier might reconsider and return to their original parties in the final stretch.