Overview of Gold Prices in 2025 Surges 70%, Expected to Continue Rising in 2026, Possibly Surpassing 70,000 Baht per Baht Gold
Overall gold prices in 2025 rose by 70%, with expectations that prices will continue to climb in 2026, potentially surpassing 70,000 baht per baht gold.
A summary of gold prices in 2025 shows a new peak at 67,400 baht per baht gold on 17 October 2025, marking an increase of over 70% compared to the start of the year when prices were between 42,450 and 42,550 baht.
/ Paworn Nawawatthanasub, Chief Executive Officer of YLG Bullion International Co., Ltd., said that 2025 was the best year for gold investment. Investors closely following gold movements were able to seize significant profit opportunities. Although the overall trend was upward, there were several pullbacks that offered buying opportunities.
Key significant price changes during 2025 were as follows:
- In January 2025, global gold bars opened at 2,632 US dollars per ounce, while domestic gold bars opened at 42,650 baht per baht gold.
- In April 2025, gold prices surged past 3,100 US dollars per ounce, and domestic prices exceeded 50,000 baht per baht gold. Gold reached new highs 19 times in the first four months.
- By October 2025, prices surpassed 4,000 US dollars per ounce, approximately 61,000 baht per baht gold, accumulating over 40 new highs in 10 months.
- As of 26 December 2025, gold prices surged to 4,531 US dollars per ounce or about 66,200 baht per baht gold, with more than 50 new highs set during the year, exceeding nearly 40 new highs in 2024.
The unprecedented continuous increase in gold prices throughout the year was driven by four main factors:
1. The clear trend of falling interest rates amid concerning economic conditions.
2. Central banks worldwide purchasing gold to reduce various risks, including security and support for 'De-dollarization' (reducing reliance on the US dollar).
3. The shift of funds from low-yield stock markets to higher-yield assets.
4. Holding assets considered safe due to ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties.
These factors driving gold to new heights in 2025 are expected to continue pushing gold prices higher in 2026. YLG projects gold targets between 4,721 and 4,900 US dollars per troy ounce. The domestic gold bar price target is set between 69,500 and 72,150 baht per baht gold. (Calculated at an exchange rate of 31.06 baht per US dollar)
Meanwhile, / Thanarat Pasawong, CEO of Hua Seng Heng Group, revealed that gold prices in 2026 are still likely to rise for a fourth consecutive year, though not as sharply as in 2025. The previous year saw the highest global gold returns in 46 years, starting at 2,632 dollars per troy ounce and reaching a record high of 4,531 dollars per troy ounce on 27 December 2025, an increase of over 70%. Domestic prices also set a new record at 67,400 baht per baht gold on 17 October 2025, up 59%.
"The main factor driving gold prices sharply higher in 2025 was uncertainty over the 'Trump 2.0' policy, particularly the idea of retaliatory tariffs on major trading partners, which raised concerns about global economic direction, increased the risk of a new trade war, and significantly heightened volatility in financial markets worldwide. In this uncertain environment, investors turned to gold as a safe haven to hedge against economic, political, and unpredictable policy risks."
Key factors driving gold in 2026 include:
- New Federal Reserve Chair: All leading candidates support aggressive interest rate cuts. Therefore, regardless of who becomes the new Fed Chair, monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative than under current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. This suggests US interest rates will likely continue to decline over the next one to two years. Meanwhile, most other major central banks have ended their rate-cut cycles except the Bank of England, narrowing interest rate differentials and weakening the US dollar, which benefits gold prices.
- Gold ETFs: 2025 saw gold ETFs return as a key market driver after four years of outflows. In the first 11 months, net inflows totaled 712.6 tons, reflecting institutional investors' confidence in gold as a core asset and contributing to the strong price surge. In 2026, gold ETFs are expected to remain major players, though there is risk of intermittent outflows due to profit-taking and portfolio adjustments, which may cause some price volatility.
- The trend of reducing reliance on the US dollar (De-dollarization): Since 2022, central banks worldwide have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually, increasing their gold demand to about one-quarter of global gold demand, becoming a major price driver. Although purchases slowed somewhat in 2025, with 686 tons bought in the first 11 months and an estimated 850 tons for the full year, this remains a very high level.
For 2026, many central banks are expected to continue accumulating gold despite high prices, such as the Chinese central bank, purchasing for 11 consecutive months, and the Polish central bank aiming to raise gold to 30% of its reserves. This is due to concerns over the depreciation of major currencies, especially the US dollar, whose credibility is declining amid perceived US government interference with independent agencies, impacting confidence in economic data transparency and extensive money printing to increase financial system liquidity.
- New players in the gold market: Besides retail investors, gold ETFs, and central banks, 2025 saw more involvement from digital asset players, showing that gold is no longer just a traditional financial asset but is increasingly linked to crypto and digital currencies.
Tether, a major stablecoin issuer with USDT and the gold token Tether Gold (XAUt), purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3, increasing its reserves to 116 tons. This makes Tether one of the largest gold holders outside central banks, with holdings comparable to mid-sized countries like South Korea, Hungary, or Greece. Tether's entry expands the gold buyer base and structurally strengthens the current gold market.
Thanarat estimates that Hua Seng Heng's 2026 global gold price target is 4,770 to 5,200 US dollars per troy ounce, while domestic gold prices are expected to range between 70,000 and 76,200 baht per baht gold. (Calculated at an exchange rate of 31.00 baht per US dollar)
