Three formulas are expected for forming government coalitions in the final stage of the 2026 election. A political analyst evaluates the "Blue-Red-Green" formula, which would push the "Orange-Blue" coalition into opposition, as having the highest likelihood.
The political atmosphere in Thailand has begun to heat up again as the 2026 election, scheduled for 8 Feb 2026 GMT+7, approaches. Political parties are gradually making moves and setting strategies amid ongoing uncertainty in the political landscape, which remains subject to change at any time.
Beyond the election competition itself, another key focus is the post-election government formation process, especially the alignment of political coalitions. This will be a crucial indicator of the country's future direction and which parties will serve as government or opposition.
Given the complex political structure and conditions regarding the number of MPs, various potential government coalition arrangements are being assessed. Each approach involves different factors and conditions leading to the political equations after election day.
Thairath Online's special news team interviewed Professor Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, Associate Professor of Political Science at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, to analyze the likely government coalition trends after the election. He identified which parties might join forces to form government and which might serve as opposition, outlining three main formulas as follows.
(Listed in order of likelihood)
1. Blue-Red-Green Formula
This coalition would include Bhumjaithai Party, Pheu Thai Party, and Kla Party, possibly with a small addition from Palang Pracharath Party. Meanwhile, the opposition would be the People’s Party and Democrat Party.
The key condition for this formula is that the two major parties must together hold more than 250 MPs, with a medium-sized party possibly adding around 50 seats.
2. Blue-Orange-Blue Formula
This coalition would consist of Bhumjaithai Party, People’s Party, and Democrat Party, with Pheu Thai and Kla Parties serving as opposition.
The important condition here is that Bhumjaithai must have more than 160 MPs to lead the government formation.
3. Orange-Red Formula
This coalition would comprise the People’s Party and Pheu Thai Party, possibly with some involvement from Democrat Party, while Bhumjaithai and Kla Parties would be in opposition.
The condition for this formula is that the People’s Party must secure more than 180 MPs to lead the government formation.
Summary
All three government formation formulas depend primarily on the election results and the number of MPs each party obtains, which will be the key variable determining which political coalition can successfully secure a parliamentary majority. Additionally, relationships between parties and their post-election political stances may influence coalition decisions.
Currently, the post-election political equation remains open and may change at any time amid expected intense political negotiations and bargaining. Ultimately, the direction of government formation and each party's role will become clearer once the official election results are announced on 8 Feb 2026 GMT+7.