Revealing the "Bhumjaithai" government formation formula after the 2026 election: Three academics analyze Anutin's prospects as prime minister, with a likely coalition including "Kla Tham" and "Pheu Thai" parties, adding smaller parties to strengthen the alliance as the most probable scenario.
After the 8 Feb 2026 election, with unofficial results counted, the Bhumjaithai party won first place, securing 193 seats. The People party obtained 118 seats, while Pheu Thai won 74 seats. This positions Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, to prepare for forming a new government.
Thairath Online's special reporting team consulted Associate Professor Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, to analyze Bhumjaithai's direction and strategies for coalition government formation following their likely decisive victory. Dr. Yutthaporn identified three possible government formation formulas:
Government parties: Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai, Kla Tham
Opposition parties: People party, Democrat party
This formula is seen as the most feasible for government formation due to its relative stability. The main opposition parties—People and Democrat—are regarded as professional opposition that systematically monitors the government rather than causing destabilizing turmoil.
If this formula materializes, the government coalition could hold about 325 seats, leaving the opposition—comprising People, Democrat, and smaller parties—with approximately 140–150 seats combined.
However, should Pheu Thai decide to join the government, clear boundaries must be established, especially on sensitive issues such as the Senate vote-rigging and Khao Kradong cases, where Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have previously had clear disagreements and debates.
Government parties: Bhumjaithai, Kla Tham
Opposition parties: People party, Pheu Thai
This formula is less likely because it may face difficulties managing the government, ultimately relying on many small parties, resembling the 2019 government led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha. If realized, it would have support around 270 seats.
Another key point is that this formula would effectively force People and Pheu Thai to unite in opposition, despite their historical conflicts and ongoing criticisms of each other, both within party ranks and among supporters, though they share common stances on issues like democracy advocacy.
From Bhumjaithai's perspective, this formula is probably undesirable since People is already an effective opposition party, and adding Pheu Thai's strength could increase pressure on the government in parliament.
Government parties: Bhumjaithai, People party, Democrat party
Opposition parties: Other smaller parties
This formula is considered more of a contingency option than a realistic one, aiming to build a positive image of government formation and gain urban middle-class approval by including People and Democrat parties in government.
However, risks include potential internal conflicts within a coalition of two large parties, and if either party withdraws, the other might be unable to continue.
Additionally, the People party has clearly declared it will not support Anutin Charnvirakul or any candidate from Bhumjaithai, making this formula practically unfeasible.
Meanwhile, Assistant Professor Dr. Wanwit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, analyzed Bhumjaithai's direction and strategy for government formation, stating that the easiest practical formula is combining votes from Bhumjaithai, Kla Tham, Palang Pracharath, Ruam Palang, and smaller parties to exceed 270–280 seats, sufficient for government formation without excessive political costs.
This equation excludes Pheu Thai due to ministerial seat allocation issues, especially as Bhumjaithai has many influential local groups joining it. Allocating additional quotas to Pheu Thai would complicate internal position distribution, making consensus difficult.
If Pheu Thai joins the government, the key ministry for negotiation would be Transport, which Bhumjaithai sees as a 'side spear,' given their history of mutual awareness. Assigning strategic ministries to rivals would strengthen the opposition in future.
Conversely, allowing Pheu Thai to remain in opposition benefits Bhumjaithai in the long term, as remaining influential local groups in Pheu Thai may seek new paths to expand power, likely shrinking the party gradually.
At the same time, the People party faces pressure from National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) allegations, affecting morale and political base. Overall, the opposition may lack power to cause major upheaval, though government oversight will continue.
If the Democrat party chooses opposition, it will be an important period to rebrand, renew its image, and reconsider its role in politics.
Though Bhumjaithai will lead government formation, internal challenges remain, especially concerning government image. Bringing in only 2–3 technocratic or outsider ministers may be insufficient; adding 1–2 more could enhance appeal and popularity.
Another key factor is the role of the 'Commander Party,' holding about 58 seats, increasing bargaining power over ministerial posts and ministry sizes. Successfully gathering additional small parties would further boost Bhumjaithai's influence in government.
Considering the overall picture, People, Democrat, and Pheu Thai parties are likely to be in opposition, mainly because Bhumjaithai's size is sufficient. Including Pheu Thai's 300-plus seats in government is unnecessary and risky, as an overly large government is harder to control and may cause long-term internal problems.
Associate Professor Dr. Thanapat Patchim, Dean of the Graduate School at Suan Dusit University, views the most likely government structure as a coalition of Pheu Thai, Kla Tham, and other small parties, led by Bhumjaithai, reflecting a continuation of the 'old power bloc' rather than a new political balance.
Oppositely, if the People party remains opposition, it is possible the Democrat party will join as well. If opposition numbers suffice, there is no need to add more parties, as an oversized opposition can become problematic, a lesson from the past.
Therefore, government formation is expected to be calculated with a manageable number of seats, ideally around 300, not exceeding 320–325, to maintain government stability and balance long term.
In terms of legitimacy, Bhumjaithai holds a clear advantage as the top vote-getter, facilitating smooth government formation. Conversely, if the People party had won first place and Bhumjaithai was second, government formation would be more complex, as People could politically 'claim credit' from Bhumjaithai later.
Hence, an appropriate coalition size is around 300-plus seats but no more than 350. Currently, no other scenario appears strong enough to complicate government formation. The numbers available support a smooth process.
Regarding whether Pheu Thai might become opposition, Dr. Thanapat considers it "difficult but not impossible," since Thai politics can be unpredictable. However, given Pheu Thai's current 80–90 seats, there is little practical reason to push them into opposition.
Another crucial factor is the NACC's allegations against 44 MPs. After formal accusations, the matter will proceed to court. Once accepted, their status resembles disqualification pending Supreme Court political office criminal cases. Key variables include how many of these 44 MPs are current parliament members and whether appeals occur, which seems unlikely unless new issues arise. The NACC's stance level could directly affect government stability.
Currently, the People party is weakened and declining due to legal pressures and criticism of its opposition role as "talking more than acting," a vulnerability to watch.
Simultaneously, Bhumjaithai is advancing politically by continuously recruiting constituency MPs and influential local groups, increasing its number to nearly 200. This strategy clearly aims to consolidate power and block the Orange party.
Lessons from past elections lead many political leaders to agree that allowing major parties to compete within provinces risks strengthening the Orange party's growth.
For Pheu Thai, with under 100 seats, this is a crucial lesson from losing many constituencies, influenced by political context, security, and leadership factors. The challenges faced by Phatthongtarn have clearly affected the party's credibility and popularity.
Meanwhile, Kla Tham has strengthened due to its base of constituency MPs and influential local groups, though its party-list popularity remains to be seen. In terms of bargaining power, Kla Tham is considered