The promotion of "Sophon Sarum" to chair the House marks Bhumjaithai's long-term political strategy to gain an advantage. Scholars view this as a model of Buriram’s political stronghold countering outspoken coalition and opposition parties.
After the 2023 election, Bhumjaithai secured more seats than the second-ranked Prachachon Party, positioning itself as the leading party to form the government. They plan to convene the House to elect the Speaker within next week, followed by the prime ministerial vote, likely pushing Anutin Charnvirakul for another term. The expected candidate for Speaker from Bhumjaithai is Sophon Sarum, an experienced politician from Buriram.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, analyzed that Bhumjaithai wants Sophon Sarum as Speaker of the House. This would strategically benefit the party by helping control parliamentary politics. Sophon is closely connected to Newin Chidchob, regarded as the party's "headmaster," making it easier to direct and implement the party's political course.
Additionally, Sophon is a multi-term MP and has held ministerial posts in several ministries. His political experience is an advantage for Bhumjaithai in maintaining long-term control within the House. Given Bhumjaithai’s strong number of seats, selecting the prime minister is not a major concern. However, if Kla Party does not join the government, Pheu Thai would have strong negotiating power within the coalition. Thus, having Bhumjaithai’s representative as Speaker is a key mechanism to balance political power.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yutthaporn sees Sophon's strengths as his extensive political experience, having been an MP multiple times and serving as minister in several ministries. He is one of Bhumjaithai’s key leaders, involved since the party's founding with close ties to the party and not a newcomer or factional politician. His direct connection to Newin builds trust within Bhumjaithai.
His weaknesses remain criticisms about the "Buriram connection" and close relationship with Newin, issues he would face regardless of holding the Speaker position.
The main candidates for Speaker are Sophon and Pradorn Prissanantakul, but the role requires political stature and acceptance among MPs.
Although Pradorn has previously served as the second deputy Speaker, considering his age and political experience, it may not be his time yet. However, he is likely to receive other political roles, such as Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office again, with potential to advance to Speaker or ministerial positions in the future.
Yutthaporn explained that Bhumjaithai’s choice for Speaker has two paths: one, selecting a highly experienced figure with political stature familiar to MPs; two, choosing a younger politician with a modern image but less experience.
Given the current situation, Bhumjaithai is likely to pick the first option, prioritizing long-term political control, especially as the government includes many small parties prone to shifting dynamics, requiring a seasoned figure to manage the House.
They also face opposition from veteran politicians like the Democrat Party and Abhisit Vejjajiva, as well as current opposition parties such as Prachachon and potentially Kla Party if it remains outside the government.
The push for Sophon as Speaker resembles the model of Chai Chidchob, former Speaker and a key political figure from Buriram. Thus, Sophon is viewed as part of the same political network as the Chidchob family. Regarding deputy Speakers, Yutthaporn said these are traditionally allocated to coalition parties. It is expected one deputy Speaker will come from Pheu Thai, while the other depends on government formation dynamics. If Kla Party agrees to join the government and Bhumjaithai accepts, Kla might get the other deputy Speaker post.
If Kla Party does not join the government, the likely arrangement is Bhumjaithai holding the first deputy Speaker position and Pheu Thai the second. Alternatively, if Kla joins, the structure might be Speaker from Bhumjaithai, first deputy Speaker from Pheu Thai, and second deputy Speaker from Kla Party.
Ultimately, the political equation is unlikely to change much from current expectations, with Anutin Charnvirakul poised to become prime minister and Bhumjaithai leading the government formation.