Pushing Sopon Sarum to become Speaker of the House is a long-term strategy by Bhumjaithai to gain political advantage. Analysts view this as a model inspired by Buriram’s political stronghold to counter coalition partners and the vocal opposition.
After the 69th general election, Bhumjaithai secured more seats than the second-ranked People's Party, making them the leading party in government formation. They plan to convene parliament next week to elect the Speaker of the House, followed by selecting the prime minister, likely Anutin Charnvirakul for another term. Among potential nominees for Speaker is veteran politician Sopon Sarum from the Buriram faction.
Associate Professor Dr. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, analyzed that Bhumjaithai aims to appoint Sopon Sarum as Speaker of the House of Representatives. This would strategically benefit the party and help them control parliamentary affairs. Sopon is closely associated with Newin Chidchob, considered the party's "grandmaster." Thus, directing and driving the party’s political course becomes easier.
Sopon is also a multi-term MP and has served as minister in several departments. His political experience is an advantage for Bhumjaithai, aiding long-term control in parliament. Regarding the prime minister selection, Bhumjaithai already commands significant votes, so it is unlikely to be a major concern if the Kla Party does not join the government. That would increase the influence of Pheu Thai within the government. Therefore, having a Bhumjaithai representative as Speaker is a key mechanism to balance political power.
Associate Professor Dr. Yutthaporn sees Sopon's strengths as his extensive political experience, having been an MP multiple times and serving as minister in various ministries. He is a key leader within Bhumjaithai, having been with the party since its foundation, with strong party ties. He is not a newcomer or factional politician. His close relationship with Newin as a direct line earns the party’s trust.
His weaknesses include ongoing criticism regarding the "Buriram connection" and his close ties to Newin. These critiques are expected regardless of whether Sopon becomes Speaker or not.
There are two main candidates for Speaker: Sopon and Pradorn Prissanantakul. However, the role requires strong political stature and acceptance among MPs.
Although Pradorn has previously served as the second deputy Speaker, considering his age and political experience, it may not be his time yet. Nevertheless, Pradorn is likely to secure another political role, such as Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, with potential for future advancement to Speaker or ministerial positions.
Yutthaporn explained that Bhumjaithai’s choice for Speaker presents two options: first, selecting a highly experienced individual with political stature, familiar and recognized by MPs; second, choosing a younger politician with a modern image but less experience.
Given the current situation, Bhumjaithai is likely to choose the first option to maintain long-term political control, especially as the government includes many small parties prone to constant political shifts, requiring a highly experienced person to manage parliament.
Additionally, the party faces opposition from veteran politicians such as the Democrat Party and Abhisit Vejjajiva, as well as contemporary opposition from the People's Party and Kla Party if the latter does not join the government.
Promoting Sopon as Speaker resembles the model of Chai Chidchob, former Speaker and a key political figure from Buriram. Sopon is thus seen as part of the same political network as the Chidchob family. Regarding deputy Speaker positions, Yutthaporn noted that by political tradition, these are usually allocated to coalition parties. One deputy Speaker is expected to come from Pheu Thai, while the other depends on government formation equations. If the Kla Party accepts conditions and joins the government, they might receive a deputy Speaker role.
If Kla Party does not join, the likely arrangement is Bhumjaithai taking the first deputy Speaker position, and Pheu Thai the second. Alternatively, if Kla joins, the structure might be Speaker from Bhumjaithai, first deputy Speaker from Pheu Thai, and second deputy Speaker from Kla.
Ultimately, the political equation is unlikely to differ much from expectations, with Anutin Charnvirakul likely becoming prime minister and Bhumjaithai leading the government formation.