Analyzing Trump's threat to attack Iran 20 times over if it blocks shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside his consideration to ease sanctions on Russian oil aiming to reduce global oil prices—will these moves be effective? The question remains.
Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the United States and Israel have launched attacks against Iran. Starting from February 28, these events have sent shockwaves worldwide, especially affecting supply chains, notably oil, as the Middle East is a major global oil exporter.
This confrontation has targeted oil infrastructure in Iran and other regional countries, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for transporting over one-fifth of the world's oil. Consequently, oil prices have surged continuously. On March 9, Brent crude oil prices nearly reached $120 per barrel, the highest since the Ukraine war began four years ago.
However, on March 10, global oil prices fluctuated sharply, dropping to $83 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the war was "nearing its end." Prices then rose to $93 per barrel, demonstrating that the actions and stance of President Trump and the U.S. strongly influence oil price directions. What is Trump's current position, and how will it affect global oil prices?
On the morning of March 9, Iranian officials warned that all oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz are at risk of attack due to the war zone. Matt Smith, an oil analyst at energy consultancy Kpler, noted that only a few commercial vessels still transit this crucial route.
Later that afternoon, U.S. local time, President Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the U.S.-Iran conflict was "almost over." He stated that Iran currently lacks a navy, communication systems, an air force, and has very few missiles left. Most drones have been destroyed, including production facilities.
The U.S. military reported having struck over 5,000 targets in Iran during the first 10 days of operations.
Regarding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route passing Iran and supplying over 20% of the world's oil—traffic has essentially halted since the war began, despite no official closure.
President Trump said the U.S. "could do much more" about the Strait of Hormuz and warned Iran that any obstruction would be "the end of their country... If they choose to do something bad, that will be the end of Iran, and you will never hear that name again."
Trump also claimed the strait remains open with ships currently passing through and threatened that if Iran continues to block shipping, the U.S. would respond with force 20 times greater, hinting at "complete takeover" of the strait.
These statements caused oil prices to drop immediately.
Earlier, the U.S. announced a $20 billion (about 600 billion baht) guarantee program to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, encouraging operators to resume transit in the war zone. The U.S. also proposed possibly deploying naval fleets to escort tankers safely through the strait.
On March 9, President Trump held a nearly one-hour direct phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump described the conversation as positive, saying Putin "wants to help" with the Middle East situation, but Trump replied, "You could help more by ending the Russia-Ukraine war."
Interestingly, after the call, Trump revealed there might be a suspension of oil-related sanctions for "certain countries" to ease shortages caused by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, though he declined to provide further details.
"We have sanctions on some countries, and we will lift those until the Strait (of Hormuz) is fully operational again," he said.
Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported this move might indicate a further relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, potentially complicating efforts to pressure Russia over the Ukraine war.
Sources noted other options to stabilize markets include releasing oil from strategic reserves or limiting U.S. exports. Last week, the U.S. granted a temporary exemption allowing India to buy some Russian oil to offset supply losses from the Middle East.
Meanwhile, President Putin signaled again that Russia is ready to compensate Europe’s oil and gas supply, citing that the Iran war has caused a global energy crisis and warning that oil production relying on the Strait of Hormuz might soon halt entirely.
Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter with the largest natural gas reserves. Putin also said Russian companies should seize opportunities presented by the Middle East situation, although he noted the oil price spike might be temporary.
Regarding the current oil price volatility, Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until April, oil prices could reach historic highs of $150–200 per barrel.
"I consider it possible that oil prices will set record highs in the coming weeks, depending on whether the Strait remains closed for several more weeks," he said.
Meanwhile, Matthew Wright, head of freight analysis at Kpler, argued the main issue isn’t insurance subsidies Trump is promoting, but safety concerns from drone and missile attacks. Naval escorts might make tankers more vulnerable targets.
"Shipowners mainly worry about missile or drone attacks. Unless security conditions improve substantially, vessel transit will remain severely restricted. Iran has demonstrated comprehensive capability to strike targets and ships at will," he said.
He also suggested the crisis might be resolved through "diplomatic solutions," especially involving China, since Asian economies face significant risks. Otherwise, it could take over a month for Iran's capabilities to weaken.
"There’s also a possibility Iran might adopt decentralized warfare tactics like the Houthi group, where even after eliminating leaders, they can continue effective operations. If so, the conflict could drag on for months, posing serious concerns for energy flows."