One team has overtaken Liverpool as the "supercomputer" predicts the latest Premier League champion after matchweek 13.
On 1 December 2025 GMT+7, Opta, the football statistics expert, revealed the latest predictions from their supercomputer about which team is most likely to win the English Premier League 2025-26 season, after completing all matches of week 13.
1. Arsenal – 30 points
2. Manchester City – 25 points
3. Chelsea – 24 points (+12 goal difference)
4. Aston Villa – 24 points (+5)
5. Brighton – 22 points (+5)
6. Sunderland – 22 points (+4)
7. Manchester United – 21 points (+1)
8. Liverpool – 21 points (0)
Most recently, Opta's supercomputer calculated that defending champions Liverpool have continued to drop in title chances, falling from fourth favorite (previously 2.42%) to fifth (now 1.72%), despite their 2-0 win over West Ham United that lifted them to eighth place.
This is because Aston Villa has moved up to fourth favorite, overtaking Liverpool, after winning seven of their last eight Premier League matches, climbing from 18th place earlier to fourth in the current standings.
The top favorite to win the 2025-26 Premier League remains Arsenal, whose chances have increased to 79.14% (previously 76.14%) after their 1-1 draw away at Chelsea.
Second favorite is Manchester City, though their title chances have dropped to 11.30% (previously 14.11%) despite a 3-2 home win over Leeds United. Chelsea remains third favorite after drawing 1-1 with league leaders Arsenal, even while playing with ten men.
1st favorite: Arsenal – 79.14%
2nd favorite: Manchester City – 11.30%
3rd favorite: Chelsea – 4.08%
4th favorite: Aston Villa – 1.90%
5th favorite: Liverpool – 1.72%
6th favorite: Brighton – 0.63%
7th favorite: Crystal Palace – 0.49%
8th favorite: Newcastle – 0.37%
9th favorite: Manchester United – 0.32%
