After reaching the halfway point of the season, Opta's supercomputer clearly shows the title chances are shifting in favor of Arsenal, while Manchester City missed an important opportunity to close the gap.
On 2 January 2026, the 2025/26 English Premier League season reached its halfway mark, concluding matchday 19 and opening the new year 2026. Overall, the title race is becoming much clearer in direction.
Arsenal, under the management of Mikel Arteta, has maintained consistent form, leading the league table and being favored as the top contender for the title according to the latest calculations by Opta's supercomputer.
Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City missed a key opportunity in their recent game, drawing 0-0 with Sunderland. This result prevented them from gaining three points to reduce the gap with Arsenal. Instead of closing to 2 points behind, they now trail by 4 points.
Premier League standings after matchday 19
Arsenal – 45 points
Manchester City – 41 points
Aston Villa – 39 points
Liverpool – 33 points
Chelsea – 30 points
Manchester United – 30 points
Premier League 2025/26 Title Favorites
(Calculated by Opta's supercomputer)
Favorite 1: Arsenal – 78.9% (increased)
Favorite 2: Manchester City – 16.69% (decreased)
Favorite 3: Aston Villa – 4.15% (decreased)
Favorite 4: Liverpool – 0.14% (decreased)
Favorite 5: Chelsea – 0.03% (decreased)
Favorite 6: Manchester United – 0.01% (unchanged)
Although the numbers clearly indicate Arsenal holds the advantage, half the season remains to be played. The key question is whether Arteta can finally break the curse of finishing as runners-up for three consecutive seasons or if Pep's Manchester City will accelerate and reclaim the championship crown once again.