Opta's supercomputer revealed the latest Premier League title chances after Arsenal failed to win three consecutive matches, reducing their points lead over challengers to just 4 points.
On 26 Jan 2026 GMT+7, the Premier League title race for the 2025-26 season heated up again following the conclusion of matchday 23, as Opta's supercomputer published updated title-winning probability figures, highlighting a significant shift due to the struggles of league leaders Arsenal.
The “Gunners” under Mikel Arteta have failed to secure a win in their last three matches, causing their points gap—previously over 9 points—to shrink sharply to just 4 points. They still top the table with 50 points.
Meanwhile, Manchester City and Aston Villa have rapidly closed the gap, both sitting on 46 points. However, City holds the advantage on goal difference (+26 compared to +10).
Positions 4 through 6 remain tightly contested among the top teams: Manchester United (38 points), Chelsea (37 points), and Liverpool (36 points), who still have theoretical title hopes, though their chances are slim numerically.
Regarding title-winning odds, Opta's supercomputer states:
Arsenal remains the favorite with an 84.44% chance, though this is down from last week.
Manchester City has moved up to second favorite at 8.38%.
Aston Villa ranks third with a 7.09% chance.
Liverpool stands at 0.03%.
Chelsea also holds a 0.03% chance.
Manchester United has a 0.02% chance.
These figures indicate that although Arsenal still holds the strongest advantage, their certainty of winning the title is noticeably wavering, especially as Pep Guardiola's and Unai Emery's teams are in strong form and persistently closing the gap.