Who should you support? Unveiling 4 Premier League scenarios for up to 7 teams vying for UCL qualification.
On 28 Feb 2025 GMT+7, as the 2025-26 Premier League season enters its final stretch, the competition is not only about the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City. There's also a fierce battle for UEFA Champions League spots, which could allow the teams finishing 5th, 6th, or even 7th to compete in the big European tournament in the 2026-27 season.
Current situation: England leads Europe.
English clubs have performed outstandingly in Europe. In the UEFA Champions League round of 16, six Premier League teams remain: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, and Newcastle United.
Meanwhile, in the Europa League, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are still in contention for the title.
With such dominating performances, England tops the UEFA Coefficient rankings this season, nearly guaranteeing an increase in Premier League UCL spots from 4 to 5.
Exploring 4 scenarios: From 4 to 7 teams.
1. Scenario of 4 teams qualifying (standard case).
This is the usual situation where the top 4 teams in the league (currently Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Manchester United) earn UCL qualification.
2. Scenario of 5 teams qualifying (most likely under new rules).
Given England's current lead in the coefficient rankings, the 5th spot via the European Performance Spot (EPS) is almost secured. Currently, the 5th-place Premier League team is Chelsea, who are battling Liverpool closely, and they would claim the 5th UCL spot.
3. Scenario of 6 teams qualifying – the European champion miracle.
This scenario occurs when league qualification combines with cup winners outside the top 5 positions.
Conditions:
1. England secures the special EPS quota (5 teams qualify via top 5 league positions).
2. An English team wins the Europa League but finishes below 5th in the Premier League.
Result: Teams ranked 1-5 qualify plus the Europa League champion, totaling 6 teams.
4. Scenario of 7 teams qualifying (most difficult but possible under the rules).
This is the most challenging scenario, but new rules allow it if three conditions occur simultaneously.
This would make the Premier League the first league in history to have 7 representatives in the UCL (top 1-5 plus UCL and UEL champions).