A team misses out as a "supercomputer" predicts which team will qualify for the UCL among Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Aston Villa.
On 5 March 2026 GMT+7, Opta, football statistics experts, revealed the latest prediction from their supercomputer on which English Premier League teams in the 2025-26 season have the highest chance to secure a spot in the UEFA Champions League after the most recent match.
1. Arsenal (30 matches) 67 points
2. Manchester City (29 matches) 60 points
3. Manchester United (29 matches) 51 points (goal difference +11)
4. Aston Villa (29 matches) 51 points (+5)
5. Chelsea (29 matches) 45 points (+19)
6. Liverpool (29 matches) 48 points (+9)
Considering the point gap, league leaders Arsenal and runners-up Manchester City are unlikely to miss out on UCL qualification next season. Therefore, the competition is among third-place Man United, fourth-place Aston Villa, fifth-place Liverpool, and sixth-place Chelsea.
Opta's supercomputer analysis shows Aston Villa holds the highest chance among these four teams, while Manchester United is next despite losing 1-2 to ten-man Newcastle, ending Michael Carrick's unbeaten streak at seven matches.
Chelsea's chances have improved after their 4-1 away win against direct rival Aston Villa. Their probability ranks just below Aston Villa and Manchester United. Liverpool's chances are the lowest after their 1-2 loss to bottom club Wolverhampton, ending a three-match league winning streak.
1. Arsenal 100% (previously 100%)
2. Manchester City 99.91% (previously 99.90%)
3. Aston Villa 58.24% (previously 69.36%)
4. Manchester United 55.53% (previously 58.06%)
5. Chelsea 41.40% (previously 14.84%)
6. Liverpool 40.35% (previously 54.24%)
