An analysis of relegation risks for five Premier League clubs in the 2025-26 season shows two teams are nearly certain to be relegated, with Tottenham Hotspur's risk percentage increasing from previous assessments.
On 6 Mar 2026 GMT+7, the relegation chances for five Premier League teams in the 2025-26 season were examined. The teams in the danger zone are Tottenham Hotspur, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United, Burnley, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. The latter two teams are almost certainly going down, according to a report by Opta, the renowned football statistics authority.
Starting with Wolverhampton Wanderers, currently 20th place (30 matches, 16 points), their relegation probability stands at 99.91%. They are the clear favorites to be relegated, having gone 19 consecutive matches without a win in the first half of the season. Next is Burnley, in 19th place (29 matches, 19 points), a newly promoted team this season, ranked second in relegation risk at 99.51%, currently nearly ten points behind safety.
Following are West Ham United, in 18th place (29 matches, 28 points), with a relegation chance estimated between 49.94% and 70.8%. Nottingham Forest, in 17th (29 matches, 28 points), faces a 23.2% to 28.27% chance of relegation. Tottenham Hotspur, in 16th place (29 matches, 29 points), carries a moderate relegation risk estimated between 4.8% and 16.10%.