Who’s out? The "Supercomputer" predicts which of the 6 Premier League teams will advance after the UCL Round of 16 first leg.
On 12 Mar 2026 GMT+7, Opta, the leading football statistics expert, revealed predictions for the chances of 6 Premier League clubs advancing to the UEFA Champions League 2025-26 quarterfinals after the Round of 16 first leg matches, with the following results.
Galatasaray 1-0 Liverpool.
Newcastle 1-1 Barcelona.
Atletico Madrid 5-2 Spurs.
Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal.
PSG 5-2 Chelsea.
Real Madrid 3-0 Manchester City.
*Second legs will be played on 17-18 Mar 2026 GMT+7.
It turns out Arsenal has the best chance to reach the quarterfinals after drawing away against Leverkusen, with the second leg at home. Liverpool follows, despite losing the first leg to Galatasaray, still having a chance to turn things around at Anfield in the second match.
Meanwhile, Newcastle ranks third in chances after a home draw with Barcelona, nearly winning but conceding a late penalty equalizer. The three teams that suffered heavy away defeats—Manchester City, Chelsea, and Spurs—have very slim chances of advancing.
1. Arsenal 78.07%.
2. Liverpool 51.36%.
3. Newcastle 31.85%.
4. Manchester City 17.05%.
5. Chelsea 7.04%.
6. Spurs 3.32%.