Assessing Arsenal's chances of winning the championship after a narrow victory over Burnley, with a clear comparison to second-placed Manchester City.
On 19 May 2026, we examine the chances of the "Gunners," Arsenal, led by Spanish manager Mikel Arteta, following their 1-0 win at Emirates Stadium against "The Clarets" Burnley, with the winning goal scored by Kai Havertz in the 36th minute.
This victory increased Arsenal's total to 82 points from 37 matches, placing them 5 points ahead of Manchester City, who have played one fewer game.
Given this situation, Arsenal's chance of winning the 2025-26 English Premier League stands at 85.64%, which would mark their first league title in 22 years, since their unbeaten championship season in 2003-04. Meanwhile, Manchester City under Pep Guardiola have a 14.36% chance.