Where did this one team come from? The "supercomputer" latest prediction for the Premier League champion after matchday 22.
On 19 Jan 2026 GMT+7, Opta, football statistics experts, revealed the latest prediction from their supercomputer on which team has the highest chance to win the 2025-26 English Premier League after all matchday 22 games in the title-contending group concluded.
1. Arsenal – 50 points
2. Manchester City – 43 points (goal difference +24)
3. Aston Villa – 43 points (+8)
4. Liverpool – 36 points
5. Manchester United – 35 points
6. Chelsea – 34 points
Opta's supercomputer calculates that Chelsea has returned as the fifth favorite to challenge for the 2025-26 Premier League title after new manager Liam Rosnier led them to a 2-0 victory over Brentford in their latest match.
The clear favorite to win the Premier League remains Arsenal, the league leaders, whose chances increased to 90.48% (up from 86.98%) despite just drawing 0-0 with Nottingham Forest, as their rivals also faltered.
Meanwhile, Manchester City, the second favorite, saw their title chances drop to 6.92% (from 8.62%) following a 0-2 loss to Manchester United. Aston Villa, still third favorite, also saw their odds shrink to 2.46% (from 4.21%) after a home defeat to Everton.
Liverpool holds a slim hope in fourth place, trailing Arsenal by 14 points, with title odds of 0.10% (down from 0.16%).
1st favorite: Arsenal – 90.48%
2nd favorite: Manchester City – 6.92%
3rd favorite: Aston Villa – 2.46%
4th favorite: Liverpool – 0.10%
5th favorite: Chelsea – 0.03%