Don't underestimate: Here are 3 conditions under which Liverpool could miss out on the UCL after losing to Manchester United in the Premier League's Red Dead derby.
On 4 May 2026, three conditions were outlined that could cause Liverpool to miss a UEFA Champions League spot next season following their 2-3 loss to long-time rivals Manchester United in the Premier League's Red Dead match.
Looking at the latest standings, the fight for the last two UEFA Champions League spots, beyond Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United, includes up to ninth place as follows.
1. Arsenal (35 matches) 76 points *Qualified for UCL
2. Manchester City (33 matches) 70 points *Qualified for UCL
3. Manchester United (35 matches) 64 points *Qualified for UCL
4. Liverpool (35 matches) 58 points (goal difference +12)
5. Aston Villa (35 matches) 58 points (+4)
6. Bournemouth (35 matches) 52 points
7. Brentford (35 matches) 51 points
8. Brighton (35 matches) 50 points
9. Chelsea (34 matches) 48 points
Liverpool still has a strong chance to secure a UCL spot, and if they earn at least 4 more points from the last 3 matches, they will guarantee a top 5 finish. This is boosted by the Premier League receiving an extra spot via UEFA's European Performance Spot (EPS).
However, Liverpool could still miss the UEFA Champions League if at least 2 out of 3 of the following conditions occur.
1. Liverpool finishes 6th or lower.
2. Aston Villa finishes 4th and wins the Europa League.
3. Nottingham Forest (currently 16th) wins the Europa League.
The Europa League champion qualifies for the UEFA Champions League next season, so potentially six Premier League clubs could qualify if Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest face each other in the semi-finals.
If Aston Villa wins the Europa League and finishes 5th in the Premier League, the extra UEFA spot (EPS) moves to the 6th placed team. But if Villa finishes in the top 4 and wins the Europa League, the EPS is overridden, meaning the top 5 (including Villa) qualify for the UCL and the 6th place goes to the Europa League.
If Nottingham Forest wins the Europa League, the Premier League will have six UCL qualifiers. Since Forest is no longer in contention for the top 5, this mirrors last season when Spurs finished 7th but earned a UCL spot by winning the Europa League, joining the top 5 teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle).