Two top teams are nearly out of the running; a "supercomputer" predicts the latest Premier League title favorites after matchweek 5.
On 21 Sep 2026 GMT+7, Opta, the football statistics expert, released the latest predictions from a supercomputer on which team is most likely to win the 2026-27 English Premier League after all 20 teams completed matchweek 5.
1. Manchester City – 15 points
2. Arsenal – 12 points
3. Brighton – 10 points
4. Brentford – 9 points (+6 goal difference)
5. Leeds United – 9 points (+4 goal difference)
6. Liverpool – 9 points (+3 goal difference)
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10. Chelsea – 7 points
11. Ipswich Town – 6 points
12. Manchester United – 5 points
It appears that the "defending champions" Arsenal are still analyzed as the top favorite to win the 2026-27 Premier League despite their first loss of the season, a 3-0 defeat to Brighton. Meanwhile, Manchester City follows as second favorite, even though they defeated Sunderland 5-3 and have risen to lead the table.
Liverpool, who won 1-0 away at Bournemouth, have moved up to third favorite. However, Chelsea, who suffered a heavy 0-3 away loss to Brentford, and Manchester United, who drew 1-1 away at Fulham, have dropped to seventh and eighth favorite respectively, each with less than a 1 percent chance.
1st favorite: Arsenal 43.65%
2nd favorite: Manchester City 39.76%
3rd favorite: Liverpool 5.71%
4th favorite: Brighton 4.15%
5th favorite: Brentford 1.19%
6th favorite: Everton 1.05%
7th favorite: Chelsea 0.95%
8th favorite: Manchester United 0.85%