Three teams are nearly out of contention: Opta's "supercomputer" predicts the favorites to win the UCL 2025-26 after the first leg of the quarterfinals.
On 9 April 2026 GMT+7, Opta, a leading football statistics expert, released the latest predictions for the favorites to win the UEFA Champions League 2025-26 after all four first-leg quarterfinal matches concluded.
Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Liverpool
Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich
Barcelona 0-2 Atlético Madrid
Sporting Lisbon 0-1 Arsenal
*Second legs to be played on 14-15 April
Opta's supercomputer still ranks Arsenal as the top favorite to win the UCL 2025-26, despite their narrow away win over Sporting Lisbon, as they remain on a comparatively easier path than teams on the other side of the bracket.
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich holds the second favorite spot after their away win at Real Madrid, though their situation could change in the second leg. They also face tough opponents like PSG or Liverpool in later rounds.
The defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are third favorites after an easier-than-expected win over Liverpool. However, Real Madrid, the 15-time European champions, Liverpool with six titles, and Sporting Lisbon are among the long shots after losing their first-leg matches.
1st favorite: Arsenal 36.32%
2nd favorite: Bayern Munich 28.90%
3rd favorite: Paris Saint-Germain 16.01%
4th favorite: Atlético Madrid 9.27%
5th favorite: Barcelona 3.57%
6th favorite: Real Madrid 2.64%
7th favorite: Liverpool 2.09%
8th favorite: Sporting Lisbon 1.20%