What are Thailand's chances if the World Cup qualification system changes to the new AFC Nations League?
On 4 Oct 2026 GMT+7, ESPN, a leading sports media outlet, reported that the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) may start organizing the AFC Nations League every two years from 2030. The competition results will determine qualification slots for both the World Cup and the Asian Cup final tournaments.
Divided into 3 tiers
Tier 1: 18 teams
Tier 2: 18 teams
Tier 3: 11 teams
* There will be promotion and relegation, and the top 8 teams in Tier 1 will compete for the AFC Nations League championship.
- Starting in the 2032-33 season, Tier 1 teams will play a total of 12 matches (6 home and 6 away).
- The top 6 teams in Tier 1 will automatically qualify for the World Cup final tournament.
- Teams ranked 7th to 10th will enter a round-robin playoff to find 2 World Cup qualifiers.
- The 3rd place team from the playoff round will advance to an intercontinental playoff.
- All 18 teams in Tier 1 and the top 6 teams in Tier 2 will qualify for the Asian Cup final tournament.
The report revealed that the AFC will trial the competition in 2028/29 before officially starting in 2030, but the proposal has not yet been formally approved.
This system will first affect the 2034 World Cup qualification (starting in the 2032/33 season), if the proposal is approved.
Currently, Thailand is ranked 93rd in the world and 15th in Asia, likely placing them in Tier 1 but near the bottom of that group.
- The 6 automatic qualification spots usually go to Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. It remains difficult for Thailand to surpass these teams.
- A more realistic opportunity is finishing 7th to 10th to reach the playoffs, where they must consistently beat mid-level teams like Iraq, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Jordan. However, only 2 playoff spots are available for 4 teams.
- Playing 12 matches against strong teams per qualification cycle helps develop the team and accumulate ranking points.
- Asian Cup qualification is almost guaranteed for Tier 1 teams, allowing Thailand continuous participation.
- Lower-ranked teams in the group may still collect points against weaker opponents.
- Relegation to Tier 2 means losing the chance to qualify for that World Cup cycle immediately.
- The previous system had an initial round Thailand managed to advance through, but the new system eliminates this shortcut.
- The many home and away matches require a large pool of players as options.
Thailand has a chance to "contend for the playoffs" if the team continues developing, but direct qualification for the 2034 World Cup remains very difficult. A decline in form risks relegation. However, all details are still proposals and may change before implementation.