Iran withdraws from the 2026 World Cup; analysis of the situation and which team will take Iran's place.
On 15 March 2026, the World Cup situation remains unsettled after Iran's Minister of Sports, Ahmad Donyamali, announced that the Iranian national team will not participate in the World Cup in the United States, stating, "Our people and youth are not safe, and the basic conditions for participation do not exist."
Withdrawing from the World Cup is not without consequences; under FIFA regulations, Iran could face a minimum fine of 300,000 US dollars (about 10 million baht) if it withdraws more than 30 days before its first match.
The fine increases to 600,000 US dollars if withdrawal occurs after the competition starts. Iran must also return all FIFA funding received during team preparations, and worse, it may be banned from future competitions.
FIFA has sole discretion to select a replacement team and is not required to choose from Asia, although sports ethics suggest selecting a team from the same confederation. According to FIFA's Article 6.7, if a member association withdraws, FIFA alone decides on replacements.
Iran was placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand.
1. Iraq
Iraq is the Asian nation closest to qualifying and still has a chance if it wins the intercontinental playoff against Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey, Mexico, on 31 March.
If Iraq loses the playoff final, it will replace Iran at the World Cup. However, if Iraq wins and qualifies for the first time since 1986, the next Asian team to qualify would be the United Arab Emirates.
2. United Arab Emirates (UAE)
If Iraq qualifies directly from the playoff, the UAE becomes the next candidate as it finished third in the same qualification group as Iran.
3. Teams from the playoffs
If Iraq qualifies through the playoff, FIFA may give Iran's spot to the team that loses the intercontinental playoff.
A major problem is that Iraqis cannot leave the country. Iraq's national coach, Graham Arnold, canceled a planned training camp in Houston and urged FIFA to postpone the playoffs, stating, "We are currently trying to get the players out of Iraq."
FIFA is expected to make a decision before the intercontinental playoff scheduled for 31 March.