Top favorite changes: Revealing 8 World Cup 2026 title contenders after the first round, including a "dark horse".
On 18 June 2026, Opta, a leading football statistics expert, released the latest predictions from its supercomputer on which nation is most likely to win the 2026 World Cup after all 48 teams completed their first group stage matches across 12 groups.
France was adjusted upward from second to the top favorite to win the 2026 World Cup after defeating Senegal 3-1 in Group I's opening match. Meanwhile, Spain, which managed only a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in Group H, dropped from first to fourth favorite.
England also rose from third to second favorite after defeating Croatia 4-2 in Group L, while Argentina, who thrashed Algeria 3-0 in Group J, moved up to third favorite.
Meanwhile, two football giants, Portugal—who drew 1-1 with DR Congo in Group K—fell to sixth favorite, and Brazil, which tied 1-1 with Morocco in Group C, dropped to seventh. Norway surprised by beating Iraq 4-1 in Group I and unexpectedly entered the top eight favorites as the eighth contender.
1st favorite: France 15.73%
2nd favorite: England 12.33%
3rd favorite: Argentina 12.28%
4th favorite: Spain 12.08%
5th favorite: Germany 6.43%
6th favorite: Portugal 5.94%
7th favorite: Brazil 5.37%
8th favorite: Norway 4.68%