Big teams eliminated: latest 2026 World Cup favorites revealed after reaching the round of 16, with France emerging as a strong frontrunner.
On 4 July 2026, Opta, the leading football statistics expert, released the latest predictions from its supercomputer on which nations have the highest chances of winning the 2026 World Cup now that the round of 16 has begun.
It turns out that France, two-time former world champions, still hold the top favorite spot to win the 2026 World Cup after an impressive, dominant run of four straight wins from the group stage through the round of 32, most recently crushing Sweden 3-0 to set up a round of 16 clash with Paraguay.
Meanwhile, defending champions Argentina remain second favorite after a hard-fought 3-2 extra-time victory over debutants Cape Verde in the round of 32. Spain, who defeated Austria 3-0, hold onto third favorite status.
Brazil, the world’s most successful nation with five titles, has risen to fourth favorite after a thrilling 2-1 comeback win over Japan, while England, struggling for form and narrowly beating DR Congo 2-1, dropped to fifth.
Portugal, who edged Croatia 2-1 in a dramatic round of 32 match, remain sixth favorite. Colombia, having beaten Ghana 1-0, climbed to seventh, and Morocco, who eliminated the Netherlands on penalties, moved up to eighth.
1st Favorite: France 28.89%
2nd Favorite: Argentina 16.32%
3rd Favorite: Spain 12.96%
4th Favorite: Brazil 9.11%
5th Favorite: England 8.14%
6th Favorite: Portugal 5.00%
7th Favorite: Colombia 3.38%
8th Favorite: Morocco 3.21%
