Big teams have been knocked out; here are the latest 2026 World Cup title favorites after the quarterfinals, with three nations surging.
On 8 July 2026 GMT+7, Opta, a leading football statistics expert, released the latest supercomputer predictions on which nation has the highest chance of winning the 2026 World Cup now that the quarterfinals have begun.
It turns out that France, two-time world champions, remain the top favorite to win the 2026 World Cup after maintaining excellent form with five consecutive wins from the group stage through the round of 16, most recently edging Paraguay 1-0 to face Morocco in the quarterfinals.
Spain has moved up to second favorite after defeating Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16. They are the only team yet to concede a goal in all five matches of the 2026 World Cup, including a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in the group stage opener, followed by four straight wins.
England has climbed to third favorite despite a challenging performance, remaining unbeaten. Even with only 10 players on the field, they narrowly overcame co-host Mexico 3-2 in the round of 16.
Meanwhile, defending champions Argentina have dropped from second to fourth favorite after advancing from the round of 32 by winning 3-2 in extra time against Cape Verde, then overcoming a two-goal deficit to beat Egypt 3-2 in the round of 16.
1st Favorite: France 27.62%
2nd Favorite: Spain 21.54%
3rd Favorite: England 17.06%
4th Favorite: Argentina 15.93%
5th Favorite: Norway 6.50%
6th Favorite: Morocco 4.04%
7th Favorite: Belgium 3.86%
8th Favorite: Switzerland 3.46%